The developments have chipped away at the ANC’s decades-old moral authority, while “pro” and “anti” Zuma factions within the party fight for control and prepare for the 2019 national elections.
“The ANC works on the assumption it can pull together a credible campaign in the future, and that the core of the ANC is still there,” said Susan Booysen, a professor of politics at the University of Witwatersrand.
That’s not a certainty, she said. “The ANC is really, really in a deep crisis.”
The ANC’s vote share dropped from nearly 70 percent in the 2004 national elections to just over 62 percent in 2014. The party had its worst-ever showing in the August 2016 local elections, losing control for the first time of the commercial hub of Johannesburg, capital Pretoria and Port Elizabeth.
That prompted party leaders to declare they would “introspect” to understand why voters are turning their backs on the party. In the parliament debate before this week’s no-confidence vote, at least one young member warned that South Africa’s upcoming generation of voters would look elsewhere.
Instead of pursuing reforms, the party has been embroiled in the Zuma administration’s challenges. Those include growing accusations that Zuma and his allies have granted political favors to a wealthy family of Indian immigrants, the Guptas, while Zuma’s related decision to fire his respected finance minister in March prompted two major ratings agencies to downgrade the country’s credit rating to junk. The Guptas have denied any wrongdoing.
“The ANC has done nothing since the last local elections to help themselves,” said Daniel Silke, director of the Political Futures Consultancy in Cape Town. “In fact, their position has deteriorated substantially. They’ve gone backwards since 2016.”
Opposition parties have capitalized on that slide, seeking to put the ANC’s deepening fractures in the national spotlight through moves like the no-confidence motion.
On Thursday, the Democratic Alliance, the main opposition party that initiated the no-confidence motion, submitted a fresh motion to dissolve parliament. If the motion passes, it would force early elections. Given the ANC’s majority in the house the measure is likely to fail, but it provides the opposition with another chance to build its case that the ANC has lost touch with voters.
The ANC can still rely on substantial support, particularly in South Africa’s rural areas, and cannot be counted out.
“The ANC remains a powerful brand,” analyst Silke said. Though the opposition has gained, no party appears strong enough to unseat it, he said. However, “the ANC can damage themselves.”
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